Confidential

Doc & Glo

2026 Pro-Forma P&L • Confidential

DTC Financial Forecast

A four-quarter pro-forma profit and loss statement for Doc & Glo’s direct-to-consumer business — projecting revenue, costs, and contribution margin across every growth lever for FY 2026.

$332K
FY 2026 Net DTC Sales
$50K+
Q4 Monthly Exit Rate
$11.5K
Subscription MRR (Year-End)
22.5%
Owned Channel Share (FY)
2.5x
Q4 Blended ROAS Target
The Forecast

2026 Quarterly Pro-Forma P&L

Four quarters of projected revenue, costs, and margin for Doc & Glo’s DTC business. Q1 is partially based on Jan–Feb actuals; Q2–Q4 are modeled against the five growth levers in the roadmap.

Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026 FY 2026
Revenue
DTC Gross Sales $32,000 $84,000 $117,000 $156,000 $389,000
Discounts ($2,200) ($10,100) ($14,000) ($27,300) ($53,600)
Refunds ($300) ($800) ($1,200) ($1,500) ($3,800)
Net DTC Sales $29,500 $73,100 $101,800 $127,200 $331,600
Revenue by Source
Paid Acquisition (New Customers) $15,000 $36,500 $45,800 $52,700 $150,000
Klaviyo Email (Flows + Campaigns) $2,000 $10,200 $20,400 $28,600 $61,200
Klaviyo SMS $100 $1,500 $4,100 $7,600 $13,300
Organic / Direct / Repeat $12,400 $24,900 $31,500 $38,300 $107,100
Subscription Revenue (included above)
Existing Subscriber MRR $7,500 $10,800 $18,000 $25,200 $61,500
New Subscription Revenue $1,500 $4,200 $6,000 $7,800 $19,500
Total Subscription Revenue $9,000 $15,000 $24,000 $33,000 $81,000
Implied Subscription MRR (end of Q) $3,500 $5,500 $8,500 $11,500 $11,500
Cost of Goods Sold
Product Cost (~38% of product rev) $8,300 $21,800 $30,400 $40,500 $101,000
Shipping Cost $3,400 $7,300 $9,200 $11,500 $31,400
Transaction Fees (~3.3%) $970 $2,400 $3,400 $4,200 $10,970
Total COGS $12,670 $31,500 $43,000 $56,200 $143,370
Gross Profit
Gross Margin $16,830 $41,600 $58,800 $71,000 $188,230
Gross Margin % 57.1% 56.9% 57.8% 55.8% 56.8%
Paid Media Spend
Meta (Facebook / Instagram) $16,400 $27,000 $33,000 $42,000 $118,400
Google (Search + Shopping) $0 $4,500 $7,500 $9,000 $21,000
Amazon Ads $0 $0 $4,500 $6,000 $10,500
Total Paid Media $16,400 $31,500 $45,000 $57,000 $149,900
Blended ROAS 1.5x 2.1x 2.3x 2.5x 2.2x
Blended CPA $82 $45 $39 $35 $42
New Customers Acquired 200 700 1,150 1,650 3,700
Bottom Line
Contribution Margin $430 $10,100 $13,800 $14,000 $38,330
Contribution Margin % 1.5% 13.8% 13.6% 11.0% 11.6%
Owned Channel Share
Email Revenue % of Net Sales 6.8% 14.0% 20.0% 22.5% 18.5%
SMS Revenue % of Net Sales 0.3% 2.1% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0%
Total Owned Channel % 7.1% 16.0% 24.1% 28.5% 22.5%
Assumptions

What’s Driving the Forecast

Every projection is tied to a specific lever. If a lever doesn’t activate on schedule, the quarter adjusts accordingly.

Q1: Stabilize

  • Jan + Feb are actuals ($8.0K + $9.4K). Mar estimated at $14.6K as inventory restocks and theme goes live
  • Meta spend stays at ~$5.5K/mo (current pacing)
  • Klaviyo flows being rebuilt — minimal contribution this quarter
  • Subscription base holds at ~270 active subscribers with 13% monthly churn offset by new signups

Q2: Optimize

  • New theme live → CVR lifts from 2.5% to 3.5%
  • Email flow stack fully active (9 flows) — flow revenue ramps to $3–4K/mo
  • Meta spend scales to $9K/mo with improved creative (Sloane vlog content)
  • Google Ads launched at $1.5K/mo (brand + shopping)
  • Bundle strategy launches → AOV lifts from $43 to $50+
  • SMS list growth from 594 to 1,500+ subscribers

Q3: Expand

  • Amazon FBA live — initial DTC spillover + discovery channel
  • Hair care relaunch with dedicated flows and creative
  • Email revenue hits 20%+ target as flows mature and list grows
  • Meta efficiency improves with full-funnel structure (3x+ new customer ROAS on winning ad sets)
  • Loyalty / referral program launched — organic repeat improves
  • SMS list passes 3,000 subscribers

Q4: Scale (BFCM)

  • BFCM 2026: 8-week build with pre-built email sequences and dedicated landing pages
  • Meta spend peaks at $16–18K/mo in November
  • Email/SMS drives 25%+ of BFCM revenue (vs. 24% in Nov 2025)
  • Subscription MRR reaches $11.5K by year-end
  • Monthly run rate exits at $50K+ — putting the business on a $600K annual trajectory

On Amazon: We’re keeping Amazon separate from DTC in this model as a discovery/marketplace channel. Amazon DTC revenue is not included in the P&L above. If you prefer consolidated reporting, we can merge it. Amazon ad spend IS included in Total Paid Media from Q3 onward.

Targets

Year-End North Stars

$50K+
Monthly Revenue (Q4 Exit)
↑ from $9K (Feb 26)
$11.5K
Subscription MRR
↑ from ~$3K
22.5%
Email + SMS % of Revenue
↑ from ~10%
2.5x
Blended ROAS (Q4)
↑ from 1.6x
<$35
Blended CPA (Q4)
↓ from $52
$332K
FY 2026 Net DTC Sales
$600K+ trajectory
Appendix

Baseline Actuals

Trailing 8-month summary from Lifetimely and Klaviyo (Jul 2025 – Feb 2026). This is the foundation every projection above is built on.

$167K
8-Mo Gross Sales
$161K
8-Mo Net Sales
$102K
8-Mo Meta Spend
1.6x
Avg Blended ROAS
$52
Avg Blended CAC
$47K
8-Mo Klaviyo Revenue
Jul 25 Aug 25 Sep 25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Jan 26 Feb 26
Revenue
Product Revenue $22,695 $23,709 $31,166 $19,025 $54,470 $36,644 $7,156 $8,931
Discounts & Refunds ($3,819) ($6,582) ($12,992) ($4,184) ($17,683) ($7,729) ($364) ($634)
Net Sales $20,562 $18,422 $18,934 $16,039 $39,752 $30,161 $7,735 $9,020
COGS
Total COGS $13,439 $11,640 $12,063 $8,141 $18,748 $10,527 $3,586 $3,493
Marketing
Meta Spend $15,311 $14,523 $11,608 $12,322 $21,706 $15,668 $5,819 $5,253
Bottom Line
Contribution Margin ($8,188) ($7,741) ($4,737) ($4,424) ($702) $3,966 ($1,669) $274
Key Metrics
Blended ROAS 1.3x 1.3x 1.6x 1.3x 1.8x 1.9x 1.3x 1.7x
Blended CAC $34 $43 $51 $72 $53 $68 $79 $89
Repeat Order % 18.9% 28.4% 43.1% 49.9% 40.4% 37.2% 57.2% 62.2%
Klaviyo Revenue $2,343 $2,845 $11,669 $4,882 $10,081 $13,692 $743 $552
Email/SMS % of Revenue 11.1% 15.1% 59.3% 29.7% 24.3% 42.9% 9.3% 5.9%

What the baseline tells us: The business ran contribution-negative in 6 of 8 months because 100% of paid acquisition flows through Meta at a 1.3–1.9x ROAS, while email/SMS is inconsistent and underbuilt. Jan–Feb 2026 revenue dropped to $8–9K/mo after Meta spend was cut. The 2026 forecast above addresses this through channel diversification, a rebuilt email flow stack, and improved unit economics via AOV and subscription gains.