A four-quarter pro-forma profit and loss statement for Doc & Glo’s direct-to-consumer business — projecting revenue, costs, and contribution margin across every growth lever for FY 2026.
Four quarters of projected revenue, costs, and margin for Doc & Glo’s DTC business. Q1 is partially based on Jan–Feb actuals; Q2–Q4 are modeled against the five growth levers in the roadmap.
| Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | FY 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | |||||
| DTC Gross Sales | $32,000 | $84,000 | $117,000 | $156,000 | $389,000 |
| Discounts | ($2,200) | ($10,100) | ($14,000) | ($27,300) | ($53,600) |
| Refunds | ($300) | ($800) | ($1,200) | ($1,500) | ($3,800) |
| Net DTC Sales | $29,500 | $73,100 | $101,800 | $127,200 | $331,600 |
| Revenue by Source | |||||
| Paid Acquisition (New Customers) | $15,000 | $36,500 | $45,800 | $52,700 | $150,000 |
| Klaviyo Email (Flows + Campaigns) | $2,000 | $10,200 | $20,400 | $28,600 | $61,200 |
| Klaviyo SMS | $100 | $1,500 | $4,100 | $7,600 | $13,300 |
| Organic / Direct / Repeat | $12,400 | $24,900 | $31,500 | $38,300 | $107,100 |
| Subscription Revenue (included above) | |||||
| Existing Subscriber MRR | $7,500 | $10,800 | $18,000 | $25,200 | $61,500 |
| New Subscription Revenue | $1,500 | $4,200 | $6,000 | $7,800 | $19,500 |
| Total Subscription Revenue | $9,000 | $15,000 | $24,000 | $33,000 | $81,000 |
| Implied Subscription MRR (end of Q) | $3,500 | $5,500 | $8,500 | $11,500 | $11,500 |
| Cost of Goods Sold | |||||
| Product Cost (~38% of product rev) | $8,300 | $21,800 | $30,400 | $40,500 | $101,000 |
| Shipping Cost | $3,400 | $7,300 | $9,200 | $11,500 | $31,400 |
| Transaction Fees (~3.3%) | $970 | $2,400 | $3,400 | $4,200 | $10,970 |
| Total COGS | $12,670 | $31,500 | $43,000 | $56,200 | $143,370 |
| Gross Profit | |||||
| Gross Margin | $16,830 | $41,600 | $58,800 | $71,000 | $188,230 |
| Gross Margin % | 57.1% | 56.9% | 57.8% | 55.8% | 56.8% |
| Paid Media Spend | |||||
| Meta (Facebook / Instagram) | $16,400 | $27,000 | $33,000 | $42,000 | $118,400 |
| Google (Search + Shopping) | $0 | $4,500 | $7,500 | $9,000 | $21,000 |
| Amazon Ads | $0 | $0 | $4,500 | $6,000 | $10,500 |
| Total Paid Media | $16,400 | $31,500 | $45,000 | $57,000 | $149,900 |
| Blended ROAS | 1.5x | 2.1x | 2.3x | 2.5x | 2.2x |
| Blended CPA | $82 | $45 | $39 | $35 | $42 |
| New Customers Acquired | 200 | 700 | 1,150 | 1,650 | 3,700 |
| Bottom Line | |||||
| Contribution Margin | $430 | $10,100 | $13,800 | $14,000 | $38,330 |
| Contribution Margin % | 1.5% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% |
| Owned Channel Share | |||||
| Email Revenue % of Net Sales | 6.8% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 22.5% | 18.5% |
| SMS Revenue % of Net Sales | 0.3% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| Total Owned Channel % | 7.1% | 16.0% | 24.1% | 28.5% | 22.5% |
Every projection is tied to a specific lever. If a lever doesn’t activate on schedule, the quarter adjusts accordingly.
On Amazon: We’re keeping Amazon separate from DTC in this model as a discovery/marketplace channel. Amazon DTC revenue is not included in the P&L above. If you prefer consolidated reporting, we can merge it. Amazon ad spend IS included in Total Paid Media from Q3 onward.
Trailing 8-month summary from Lifetimely and Klaviyo (Jul 2025 – Feb 2026). This is the foundation every projection above is built on.
| Jul 25 | Aug 25 | Sep 25 | Oct 25 | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Product Revenue | $22,695 | $23,709 | $31,166 | $19,025 | $54,470 | $36,644 | $7,156 | $8,931 |
| Discounts & Refunds | ($3,819) | ($6,582) | ($12,992) | ($4,184) | ($17,683) | ($7,729) | ($364) | ($634) |
| Net Sales | $20,562 | $18,422 | $18,934 | $16,039 | $39,752 | $30,161 | $7,735 | $9,020 |
| COGS | ||||||||
| Total COGS | $13,439 | $11,640 | $12,063 | $8,141 | $18,748 | $10,527 | $3,586 | $3,493 |
| Marketing | ||||||||
| Meta Spend | $15,311 | $14,523 | $11,608 | $12,322 | $21,706 | $15,668 | $5,819 | $5,253 |
| Bottom Line | ||||||||
| Contribution Margin | ($8,188) | ($7,741) | ($4,737) | ($4,424) | ($702) | $3,966 | ($1,669) | $274 |
| Key Metrics | ||||||||
| Blended ROAS | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.6x | 1.3x | 1.8x | 1.9x | 1.3x | 1.7x |
| Blended CAC | $34 | $43 | $51 | $72 | $53 | $68 | $79 | $89 |
| Repeat Order % | 18.9% | 28.4% | 43.1% | 49.9% | 40.4% | 37.2% | 57.2% | 62.2% |
| Klaviyo Revenue | $2,343 | $2,845 | $11,669 | $4,882 | $10,081 | $13,692 | $743 | $552 |
| Email/SMS % of Revenue | 11.1% | 15.1% | 59.3% | 29.7% | 24.3% | 42.9% | 9.3% | 5.9% |
What the baseline tells us: The business ran contribution-negative in 6 of 8 months because 100% of paid acquisition flows through Meta at a 1.3–1.9x ROAS, while email/SMS is inconsistent and underbuilt. Jan–Feb 2026 revenue dropped to $8–9K/mo after Meta spend was cut. The 2026 forecast above addresses this through channel diversification, a rebuilt email flow stack, and improved unit economics via AOV and subscription gains.